Chiara Poletto

peer reviewed publications

2026

Characterization and forecast of global influenza subtype dynamics, F Bonacina, P-Y Boëlle, V Colizza, O Lopez, M Thomas, C Poletto, Nature Health, doi.org/10.1038/s44360-026-00069-2 (2026)

2025

Modelling practices, data provisioning, sharing and dissemination needs for pandemic decision-making: a European survey-based modellers’ perspective, 2020 to 2022, E van Kleef, W Van Bortel, E Arsevska, L Busani, S Dellicour, L Di Domenico, M Gilbert, SL van Elsland, MUG Kraemer, S Lai, P Lemey, S Merler, Z Milosavljevic, A Rizzoli, D Simic, AJ Tatem, M Teisseire, W Wint, V Colizza, C Poletto, Eurosurveillance 30(42):pii=2500216 (2025)
Evaluating the impact of the Malakit intervention on malaria transmission in the Guiana Shield: a mathematical modelling study, Y Lambert, R Métras, A Sanna, M Galindo, H Hiwat, P Marchesini, Y Lazrek, L Musset, S Vreden, M C Suárez-Mutis, O M Lapouble, A Adenis, M Nacher, P-Y Boëlle, C Poletto, M Douine, The Lancet Regional Health - Americas 47, 101123 (2025)
Surveillance of influenza viruses circulating from 2017/2018 to 2023/2024 seasons in Veneto Region, North-East Italy, G Di Pietra, D Munegato, C Poletto, V Conciatori, S Di Sopra, E Franchin, I Castagliuolo, C Salata, C Del Vecchio, Virology Journal 22, 114 (2025)
Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation, F Parino, E Gustani-Buss, T Bedford, MA Suchard, NS Trovão, A Rambaut, V Colizza, C Poletto, P Lemey, PNAS Nexus 4, pgae561 (2025)

2024

The genomic evolutionary dynamics and global circulation patterns of respiratory syncytial virus, AC Langedijk, B Vrancken, RJ Lebbink, D Wilkins, EJ Kelly, E Baraldi, AH Mascareñas de Los Santos, DM Danilenko, EH Choi, MA Palomino, H Chi, C Keller, R Cohen, J Papenburg, J Pernica, A Greenough, P Richmond, F Martinón-Torres, T Heikkinen, RT Stein, M Hosoya, MC Nunes, C Verwey, A Evers, L Kragten-Tabatabaie, MA Suchard, SL Kosakovsky Pond, C Poletto, V Colizza, P Lemey, LJ Bont on behalf of the INFORM-RSV Study Group, Nature Communications 15, 3083 (2024)
Physics research against pandemics, T Mora, C Poletto, M Sales-Pardo, A M Walczak, book chapter in EPS Grand Challenges, Physics for Society in the Horizon 2050, Edited by Carlos Hidalgo IOP Publishing (2024)
Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha B Faucher, CE Sabbatini, P Czuppon, MUG Kraemer, P Lemey, V Colizza, F Blanquart, P-Y Boëlle, C Poletto Nature Communications 15, 2152 (2024)

Dispersion patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu in Latin America and the Caribbean T Gräf, AA Martinez, G Bello, S Dellicour, P Lemey, V Colizza, M Mazzoli, C Poletto, V Leiko O Cardoso, A Freitas da Silva, F Couto Motta, P Cristina Resende, MM Siqueira, L Franco, L Gresh, J-M Gabastou, A Rodriguez, A Vicari, S Aldighieri, J Mendez-Rico, J Almeida Leite Nature Communications 15, 1837 (2024)

Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era E Valdano, D Colombi, C Poletto, V Colizza Nature Communications 14, 8472 (2023)
Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic F Bonacina, P-Y Boëlle, V Colizza, O Lopez, M Thomas, C Poletto International Journal of Infectious Diseases (2023)

Retrospective analysis of SARS-CoV-2 omicron invasion over delta in French regions in 2021–22: a status-based multi-variant model T Haschka, E Vergu, B Roche, C Poletto, L Opatowski, BMC Infectious Diseases 22, 815 (2022)
Contact patterns and HPV-genotype interactions yield heterogeneous HPV-vaccine impacts depending on sexual behaviors: An individual-based model M Bonneault, C Poletto, M Flauder, D Guillemot, E Delarocque-Astagneau, A C M Thiébaut L Opatowski, Epidemics 39, 100584 (2022)
Agent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19 B Faucher, R Assab, J Roux, D Levy-Bruhl, C Tran Kiem, S Cauchemez, L Zanetti, V Colizza, P-Y Böelle, C Poletto, Nature Communications 13, 1414 (2022)
Learning from the initial deployment of digital contact tracing apps C Poletto, P-Y Böelle, The Lancet Public Health 7, 3, E206-E207 (2022)

Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against the COVID-19 pandemic L Di Domenico, CE Sabbatini, PY Böelle, C Poletto, P Crépey, J Paireau, S Cauchemez, F Beck, H Noel, D Levy-Bruhl, V Colizza Communications Medicine 1, 57 (2021)
A modelling study investigating short and medium-term challenges for COVID-19 vaccination: From prioritisation to the relaxation of measures C Tran Kiem, C Massonnaud, D Levy-Bruhl, C Poletto, V Colizza, P Bosetti, A Fontanet, A Gabet, V Olie, L Zanetti, P-Y Böelle, P Crépey, S Cauchemez, EClinicalMedicine 38, 101001 (2021)
Untangling introductions and persistence in COVID-19 resurgence in Europes P Lemey, N Ruktanonchai, S Hong, V Colizza, C Poletto, F Van den Broeck, M Gill, X Ji, A Levasseur, A Sadilek, S Lai, A Tatem, G Baele, M Suchard, S Dellicour, Nature doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03754-2 (2021)
Reorganization of nurse scheduling reduces the risk of healthcare associated infections E Valdano, C Poletto, P-Y Böelle, V Colizza, Scientific Report 11, 7393 (2021)
Anatomy of digital contact tracing: Role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection JA Moreno López, B Arregui-Garcĺa, P Bentkowski, L Bioglio, F Pinotti, P-Y Böelle, A Barrat, V Colizza, C Poletto Science Advances, 7, eabd8750 (2021)

Accommodating individual travel history, global mobility, and unsampled diversity in phylogeography: a SARS-CoV-2 case study P Lemey, S Hong, V Hill, G Baele, C Poletto, V Colizza, Á O’Toole, JT McCrone, KG Andersen, M Worobey, MI Nelson, A Rambaut & MA Suchard Nature Communications 11:5110 (2020)
Applications of predictive modelling early in the COVID-19 epidemic C Poletto, SV Scarpino, EM Volz The Lancet Digital Health doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30196-5, (2020)
Tracing and analysis of 288 early SARS-CoV-2 infections outside China: A modeling study F Pinotti, L Di Domenico, E Ortega, M Mancastroppa, G Pullano, E Valdano, P-Y Böelle, C Poletto, V Colizza PLoS Medicine 17(7): e1003193 (2020)
Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa D Colombi, C Poletto, E Nakouné, H Bourhy, V Colizza PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14(5): e0008317 (2020)
Excess cases of influenza-like illnesses synchronous with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, France, March 2020 P-Y Böelle, C Souty, T Launay, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, S Behillil, V Enouf, C Poletto, B Lina, S van der Werf, D Lévy-Bruhl, V Colizza, T Hanslik, T Blanchon. Eurosurveillance 25(14):pii=2000326 (2020)
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study M Gilbert, G Pullano, F Pinotti, E Valdano, C Poletto, P-Y Böelle, E D'Ortenzio, Y Yazdanpanah, SP Eholie, M Altmann, B Gutierrez, M U. G. Kraemer, V Colizza. The Lancet S0140-6736(20)30411-6 (2020)
Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020 G Pullano, F Pinotti, E Valdano, P-Y Böelle, C Poletto, V Colizza. Eurosurveillance 25(4):pii=2000057 (2020)
Interplay between competitive and cooperative interactions in a three-player pathogen system F Pinotti, F Ghanbarnejad, P Höovel, C Poletto Royal Society Open Science 7 190305 (2020)

Host contact dynamics shapes richness and dominance of pathogen strains F Pinotti, É Fleury, D Guillemot, P-Y Böelle, C Poletto PLoS Computational Biology 15(5): e1006530 (2019)
Mechanisms for lyssavirus persistence in non-synanthropic bats in Europe: insights from a modeling study, D Colombi, J Serra Cobo, R Metras, A Apolloni, C Poletto, M Lopez-Roig, H Bourhy, V Colizza, Scientific Reports, 9, 537 (2019)

Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics, P Coletti, C Poletto, C Turbelin, T Blanchon, V Colizza, Scientific Reports 8, 12786 (2018)
Network-based assessment of the vulnerability of Italian regions to bovine brucellosis, A Darbon , E Valdano , C Poletto , A Giovannini , L Savini , L Candeloro , V Colizza Preventive Veterinary Medicine 158, 25-34 (2018)
The potential value of crowdsourced surveillance systems in supplementing sentinel influenza networks: the case of France, C Guerrisi, C Turbelin, C Souty, C Poletto, T Blanchon, T Hanslik, I Bonmarin, D Levy-Bruhl, V Colizza, Eurosurveillance, 23(25):pii=1700337 (2018)
Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data, J Riou , C Poletto , P-Y Boëlle, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 12(6): e0006526 (2018)
The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium, G De Luca, K Van Kerckhove, P Coletti, C Poletto, N Bossuyt, N Hens, V Colizza BMC Infectious Diseases 18:29 (2018)
Epidemic threshold in continuous-time evolving networks, E Valdano, M Re Fiorentin, C Poletto, and V Colizza, Physics Review Letters 120, 068302 (2018)

Human mobility networks and persistence of rapidly mutating pathogens, A Aleta, A N S Hisi, S Meloni, C Poletto, V Colizza, Y Moreno, Royal Society Open Science 4(3):160914 (2017)
A comparative analysis of Chikungunya and Zika transmission, J Riou, C Poletto, P-Y Boëlle, Epidemics 19 (2017)

Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings, L Bioglio, M Génois, C L Vestergaard, C Poletto, A Barrat, V Colizza, BMC Infectious Diseases 16:676 (2016)
Risk of MERS importation and onward transmission: a systematic review and analysis of cases reported to WHO, C Poletto , P-Y Boëlle, V Colizza, BMC Infectious Diseases 16(1) 448 (2016)
Real-Time Assessment of the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak, A Pastore-Piontti, Q Zhang, M F C Gomes, L Rossi, C Poletto, V Colizza, D L Chao, I M Longini, M E Halloran, A Vespignani, book chapter in Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, G Chowell, J M Hyman (editors), Springer (2016)
Impact of spatially constrained sampling of temporal contact networks on the evaluation of the epidemic risk, C Vestergaard, E Valdano, M Génois, C Poletto, V Colizza, A Barrat, Eur J Appl Math doi:10.1017/S0956792516000309 (2016)
Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: a combined modelling approach, C Poletto, V Colizza, P-Y Boëlle, Epidemics 15 1-9 (2016)

Infection propagator approach to compute epidemic thresholds on temporal networks: impact of immunity and of limited temporal resolution, E Valdano, C Poletto, V Colizza, the European Physical Journal B, 88: 341 (2015)
Analytical computation of the epidemic threshold on temporal networks, E Valdano, L Ferreri, C Poletto, V Colizza, Physics Review X 5 021005 (2015)
Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal co ntact data E Valdano, C Poletto, A Giovannini, D Palma, L Savini, V Colizza, PLoS Computational Biology 11(3): e1004152 (2015)
Characterising two-pathogen competition in spatially structured environments, C Poletto, S Meloni, A Van Metre, V Colizza, Y Moreno, A Vespignani, Scietific Reports 5, 7895 (2015)

Assessing the impact of travel restrictions on international spread of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic, C Poletto, M F C Gomes, A Pastore y Piontti, L Rossi, L Bioglio, D L Chao, I M Longini, M E Halloran, V Colizza, A Vespignani, Eurosurveillance 19:42 (2014)
The representativeness of a European multi-center network for influenza-like-illness participatory surveillance, P Cantarelli, M Debin, C Turbelin, C Poletto, T Blanchon, A Falchi, T Hanslik, I Bonmarin, D Levy-Bruhl, A Micheletti, D Paolotti, A Vespignani, J Edmunds, K Eames, R Smallenburg, C Koppeschaar, A O Franco, V Faustino, A Carnahan, M Rehn, V Colizza, BMC Public Health 14:1 984 (2014)
Local and regional spread of chikungunya fever in the Americas, S Cauchemez, M Ledrans, C Poletto, P Quenel, H de Valk, V Colizza, P-Y Boëlle, Eurosurveillance 19:28 (2014)
Assessment of the middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in the middle east and risk of international spread using a novel maximum likelihood analysis approach, C Poletto, C Pelat, D Levy-Bruhl, Y Yazdanpanah, P-Y Boëlle, V Colizza, Eurosurveillance 19:23 (2014)
Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour, A Apolloni, C Poletto, J J Ramasco , P Jensen, V Colizza, Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 11 (1), 3 (2014)

Evaluating the feasibility and participants’ representativeness of an online nationwide surveillance system for influenza in France, M Debin, C Turbelin, T Blanchon, I Bonmarin, A Falchi, T Hanslik, D Levy-Bruhl, C Poletto, V Colizza, PLoS ONE 8(9) (2013)
Human mobility and time spent at destination: Impact on spatial epidemic spreading, C Poletto, M Tizzoni, V Colizza, Journal of Theoretical Biology 338 41-58 (2013)
Host mobility drives pathogen competition in spatially structured populations, C Poletto, S Meloni, V Colizza, Y Moreno, A Vespignani, PLoS Computational Biology 9(8): e1003169 (2013)
Age-specific contacts and travel patterns in the spatial spread of 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, A Apolloni, C Poletto, V Colizza, BMC Infectious Diseases 13:176 (2013)

Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm, M Tizzoni, P Bajardi, C Poletto, J J Ramasco, D Balcan, B Goncalves, N Perra, V Colizza, A Vespignani, BMC Medicine 10:165 (2012)
Heterogeneous length of stay of hosts’ movements and spatial epidemic spread, C Poletto, M Tizzoni, V Colizza, Scientific Reports 2:476 (2012)

Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic, P Bajardi, C Poletto, J J Ramasco, M Tizzoni, V Colizza, A Vespignani, PLoS ONE 6(1): e16591 (2011)

Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, D Balcan, V Colizza, A C Singer, C Chouaid, H Hu, B Goncalves, P Bajardi, C Poletto, J J Ramasco, N Perra, M Tizzoni, D Paolotti, W Van den Broeck, A J Valleron, A Vespignani, PLoS Currents Influenza, 2009 Dic 4:RRN1133
Estimate of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic model, V Colizza, A Vespignani, N Perra, C Poletto, B Goncalves, H Hu, D Balcan, D Paolotti, W Van den Broeck, M Tizzoni, P Bajardi, J J Ramasco, PLoS Currents Influenza, 2009 Nov 11:RRN1129
Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere, P Bajardi, C Poletto, D Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, J J Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, M Tizzoni, W Van den Broeck, V Colizza, A Vespignani, Emerging Health Threats Journal, 2: e11 (2009)
Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility, D Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, P Bajardi, C Poletto, J J Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, M Tizzoni, W Van den Broeck, V Colizza, A Vespignani, BMC Medicine, 7:45 (2009)

Emergence of secondary motifs in tube like-polymer in a solvent, C Poletto, A Giacometti, A Trovato, J B Banavar, A Maritan, Physics Review E, 77, 061804 (2008)

Structural motifs of biomolecules, J B Banavar, T H Hoang, J H Maddocks, A Maritan, C Poletto, A Stasiak, A Trovato, Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences USA, 104 (2007)