We are a research group at the Department of Molecular Medicine of the University of Padova in Italy. We combine complex-system physics, heavy computation and epidemiology to study the drivers of pathogens' spread in human and animal populations.
highlights
mar-2026: Samuele has joined the team as a master student. He will work on the role of detection baises on outbreak assessment.
mar-2026: Characterization and forecast of global influenza subtype dynamics has been published in Nature Health. The work has been covered by the press, including ANSA, le Scienze, Unipd News, and Bocconi Hub News.
nov-2025: The pre-print of the research project led by Pourya is out: Contact structure and population immunity shape the selective advantage of emerging variants.
oct-2025: Our survey on the modelling experience during COVID-19 pandemic and leassons learnt for future pandemic emergence has been published on Eurosurveillance. Check it out!
may-2025: Network structure induced bias in estimates of intrinsic generation times. New pre-print out on medRxiv.
may-2025: Evaluating the impact of the Malakit intervention on malaria transmission in the Guiana Shield: a mathematical modelling study now published on The Lancet Regional Health Americas.
mar-2025: Ioannis has joined the team as a master student in physics. He will work on the analysis of multi-pathogen systems in collaboration with the LIPH.
apr-2025: Congrats to Lorenzo Luzzi who has obtained his master degree in mathematics. Lorenzo has worked on the thesis "Biased epidemic analysis due to heterogenous and partial surveillance: a study on deterministic and stochastic multi-class models for epidemic dynamics" have a look at his thesis online.
mar-2025: Modelling practices, data provisioning, sharing and dissemination needs for pandemic decision-making: a European survey-based modellers’ perspective. New pre-print out on medRxiv.
jan-2025: Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation is now published on PNAS Nexus.
fall-2024: the networks and disease ecology team is joining the influcast hub for the forecast of the seasonal influenza circulation in Italy. During the 2024-2025 season we will provide, together with other Italian teams, weekly model projections of future trends of influenza-like-illnesses.
highlights
